nymex_1-october_2016


After moving into the prompt position, the October contract quickly dipped to $2.827 per MMBtu and eventually slid to $2.676 per MMBtu.  Since hitting that key support level, the bulls continued to try to push the October contract above $3 per MMBtu.  Lingering summer heat aided in their success and the October contract settled above $3 per MMBtu for a couple of days late in the month.  Eventually, the bulls lost their momentum and the October contract rolled off the board at $2.952 per MMBtu.  Since the November contract has now moved into the prompt position, it has spent the last week between $2.89 and $2.99 per MMBtu.  The above-normal temperatures remain in the forecast, but during this time of year, it is more likely to lower heating demand, than it is to increase demand for air conditioning.  With Hurricane Matthew also impacting the forecast, it’s current path could lead to power outages and decreased demand in the Southeast.  Natural gas storage is 2.6% above last year at this time and 6.5% above the five-year average, for this reporting week.  The market continues to react to the weekly storage report, as we see how natural gas demand is being impacted by this lingering heat and prepare for winter.

nymex_2-october_2016